2018 QB Draft Guide

Lamar Jackson

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School Rookie Age Height TANY/A* Breakout Age Mobility
Louisville 21.7 6'2" 8.12 (Great) 18.7 (Elite) 35.8% (Elite)
TANY/A* by Age compared to: All QBs drafted | First Round QBs | Day 2 QBs | Day 3 QBs
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My Take

There's no shortage of polarizing prospects in the 2018 QB class, and Lamar Jackson is up there in that regard. While some scouts are down on his mechanics, his statistical profile is elite. Jackson is one of just nine QBs since 2000 to have a breakout season at the age of 18. He only got better after that, something only he and Marcus Mariota can claim from that group of young breakouts. He has elite athleticism as well, as he ran for more yards and TDs than Saquon Barkley did. The concern there is that QBs run the ball a lot less in the NFL than college. Rushing ability becomes more of a bonus, but the ability to escape pressure is still important. On top of that, Jackson's arm is actually a plus as well. His schedule/era-adjusted AY/A* for his career was 8.36. QBs taken in the back end of the first round since 2001 have had an average AY/A* of 8.37. So by this metric, Jackson's arm is worth a pick between 17 and 32. Add in his elite legs and I think top-12 in the draft is his floor. For both NFL and dynasty, Jackson is firmly in my top tier of 2018 QBs with Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. And if he lands a starting spot in 2018, he will be my top rookie QB from a redraft perspective.

Likely Landing Spots

Bills, Cardinals, Dolphins, Patriots

Created by Sean Slavin of TwoQBs, all stats courtesy of Sports Reference.